Bitcoin above ___ on July 29?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether Bitcoin's price will be above a specific dollar level at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 29, 2026. There are three separate price thresholds here: $56,000, $58,000, and $60,000. A Yes on any of them means Bitcoin's price at that moment is higher than that number. A No means it fell to or below it. The three markets together let you see how confident people are at different price levels, with $56,000 being the easiest bar to clear and $60,000 the hardest. Settlement is simple and very specific: one number, one moment. Whoever runs this market checks the closing price of one single one-minute candle on Binance (the BTC/USDT pair) at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on July 29, 2026. If that single closing price is strictly higher than the threshold, it resolves Yes. If it is equal to or lower, it resolves No. Only Binance counts here, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange, so a brief price difference between platforms at that exact second could matter. No recent news directly about Bitcoin's price level was provided. The headlines available cover BitMEX shutting down, EU sanctions on Russia, an oil price surge, and a Ripple investment in a compliance firm. None of these directly signal where Bitcoin will trade on July 29. In general, things worth watching would be major regulatory announcements, large macroeconomic shifts, or significant crypto market events between now and the deadline. With over a year until the deadline, the honest answer is that almost anything could happen. The market currently prices the $56,000 threshold at 99%, meaning it sees this as nearly certain, which reflects that Bitcoin is trading well above these levels today. The main uncertainty at 99% is not a close call between two outcomes: it is simply whether something unexpected and dramatic drives Bitcoin below these levels before July 29, 2026. Major crashes have happened before. A calm year makes Yes more likely, but no outcome is guaranteed.

The odds right now

• 56,00099%
• 58,00098%
• 60,00093%
• 62,00083%
• 64,00061%
• 66,00033%
• 68,00014%
• 70,0005%
• 72,0002%
• 76,0001%
• 74,0001%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 29, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title has a final "Close" price higher than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.