Bitcoin all time high by ___?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: by what date will Bitcoin reach a brand-new all-time high price? Two specific deadlines are offered as options, September 30, 2026 and December 31, 2026, and you pick which one you think comes first. A 'Yes' on a given date means Bitcoin hit a record high on or before that date. A 'No' means it did not. Think of it like a race: the question is not just whether Bitcoin breaks its record, but when. The market settles based on one very specific data source: the 'High' price field of one-minute trading candles on Binance's BTC/USDT chart. If any single one-minute candle's High price exceeds every previous candle's High price ever recorded there, that counts as a new all-time high. The window starts December 16, 2025 and runs through the deadline date. Only Binance's own price feed counts, so a record on another exchange like Coinbase would not be enough on its own. None of the provided news headlines relate to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency markets in any way. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. The kinds of developments worth watching would be major shifts in U.S. crypto regulation, large institutional investment announcements, or broad macroeconomic news that tends to move Bitcoin's price significantly. Bitcoin's price is genuinely difficult to forecast over a multi-month horizon. The market currently prices the September deadline at just 2% and the December deadline at 5%, meaning participants collectively see these outcomes as unlikely but not impossible. The core uncertainty is that Bitcoin is highly sensitive to unpredictable events: regulatory changes, macroeconomic shocks, or sudden shifts in investor sentiment. Given the low odds, the main honest question is simply whether something unexpected pushes Bitcoin to a new record before the clock runs out.

The odds right now

• December 31, 2026-0.4 pts (1w)5%
• September 30, 2026+0.2 pts (1w)2%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves January 1, 2027

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT between 16 December '25 10:30 and 11:59PM ET on the date specified in the title has a final “High” price that is higher than any previous Binance 1 minute candle's "High" price on any prior date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.