Bitcoin price on July 21?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the Bitcoin price be at exactly noon Eastern Time on July 21, 2026? It is a multiple-choice question, not a simple yes/no. You pick a price range, and the three choices on the table are $62,000-$64,000, $64,000-$66,000, or $66,000-$68,000. The market currently thinks the $64,000-$66,000 range is the most likely landing spot, with $62,000-$64,000 as the second most popular guess. Settlement is decided by one very specific data point: the closing price of the 1-minute Bitcoin/USDT candle on Binance at exactly 12:00 noon Eastern Time on July 21, 2026. Only Binance counts, not Coinbase, Kraken, or any other exchange. Whichever price bracket that single number falls into wins. If the price lands exactly on a boundary between two brackets, the higher bracket wins. Any range whose bracket does not match that price resolves as No. None of the provided news headlines relate to Bitcoin or cryptocurrency markets, so there is nothing relevant here to summarize. The kind of news that would matter for this market includes major regulatory announcements about crypto, large institutional Bitcoin purchases or sales, significant macroeconomic surprises like inflation data or central bank decisions, or any major event on the Binance exchange itself. Bitcoin's price a year from now is genuinely one of the hardest things to predict in financial markets. The asset routinely moves 10-20% in a matter of weeks, meaning all three current brackets could be completely wrong by July 2026. The market prices the middle range at 49%, which reflects real uncertainty, not confidence. Anything from global regulation changes, to a major hack, to a shift in interest rates could move the price far outside any bracket currently on offer.

The odds right now

• 64,000-66,00074%
• 66,000-68,00024%
• 62,000-64,0005%
• 60,000-62,0001%
• 68,000-70,0001%
• 70,000-72,0000%
• 58,000-60,0000%
• <56,0000%
• 56,000-58,0000%
• 72,000-74,0000%
• >74,0000%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 21, 2026

This market will resolve according to the final "Close" price of the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.