Donald Trump # Truth Social posts July 21 - July 28, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Donald Trump post on Truth Social in one specific week? A 'Yes' for a given range means his post count lands inside that bracket. The top three brackets right now are 120-139 posts (28%), 140-159 posts (25%), and 200 or more posts (22%), which tells you the crowd expects somewhere between a brisk and a very active week of posting, roughly 17 to 20-plus posts per day. The market settles by counting Trump's Truth Social posts between July 21 at noon ET and July 28 at noon ET, exactly seven days. Main posts, reposts, and quote posts all count. Replies do not, unless they appear on his main feed. One important detail: deleted posts still count if a tracker tool caught them within about five minutes of posting. The official counter is a third-party tracking tool; Truth Social itself is only used as a backup if the tracker fails. The provided news from July 22 covers Trump attending a dignified transfer ceremony for fallen soldiers, Pentagon chief Hegseth testifying about Iran, and Secretary Rubio discussing Houthi activity in the Red Sea. These are active, high-profile events that often prompt political leaders to post more frequently, but there is no direct data yet on how many posts Trump has made since the window opened. Trump's posting volume can swing sharply from week to week depending on news cycles, travel, and his mood, which makes any single range genuinely hard to pin down. The spread across four brackets is fairly even, reflecting that uncertainty directly. A busy geopolitical week could push the count higher; a quieter or travel-heavy schedule could pull it lower. The deleted-post rule also adds a small wrinkle: posts that disappear quickly still count, so the final number may differ from what a casual observer sees.

The odds right now

• 120-13930%
• 140-15918%
• 100-11918%
• 160-17915%
• 80-998%
• 200+8%
• 180-1996%
• 60-793%
• 40-590%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 28, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Donald Trump (@realDonaldTrump), posts on Truth Social between July 21, 12:00 PM ET and July 28, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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