Elon Musk # tweets August 4 - August 11, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X during one specific week? The answer gets sorted into ranges, so you are not guessing an exact number but rather a band, like 200-219 posts or 220-239 posts. A higher range winning means he posted a lot that week; a lower range means he was relatively quiet. The current leading ranges cluster around 180 to 239 posts, which works out to roughly 26 to 34 posts per day. At the end of the window, a third-party tracking tool called xtracker.polymarket.com automatically counts his posts and determines which range the total falls into. The window runs from August 4 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time to August 11 at 12:00 PM Eastern Time, exactly seven days. Regular posts, quote posts, and reposts all count. Replies do not count, unless they appear on his main feed rather than as a reply thread. Deleted posts still count if the tracker caught them within about five minutes of posting. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development that would matter here is anything that significantly changes how active Musk is on X, such as a major public controversy he weighs in on, a product launch, or a period when he is known to be traveling or less publicly active. Musk's posting volume is genuinely unpredictable week to week, which is the core difficulty here. A single news event, a political debate, or a product announcement can send his post count soaring; a quieter week can keep it low. The market is spread fairly evenly across several neighboring ranges, which itself signals that participants see real uncertainty. There is also a counting rule edge case: the line between a main-feed reply and a regular post can affect the total in ways that are hard to anticipate in advance.

The odds right now

• 200-21917%
• 220-23916%
• 180-19914%
• 240-25914%
• 260-27910%
• 160-1799%
• 280-2998%
• 140-1595%
• 300-3193%
• 120-1393%
• 320-3392%
• 100-1192%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 11, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 4 12:00 PM ET to August 11, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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