Elon Musk # tweets August 7 - August 14, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking how many times Elon Musk posts on X during a specific one-week window. It is not about what he says or whether something happens in the news. The only question is the raw count of posts, including reposts and quote posts, but not counting ordinary replies. A lower range like 180-199 means a quieter week for him on the platform, while a higher range like 220-239 means a more active one. The market settles based on the number recorded by a specific automated tracker at xtracker.polymarket.com, counting posts made between August 7 and August 14, 2026 at noon Eastern Time each day. Reposts and quote posts count. Regular replies do not, unless they appear on his main feed. One important detail: deleted posts still count if the tracker captured them within about five minutes. Whichever count bracket matches the final number is the one that resolves Yes. The two recent headlines provided, one about NASA using a Cybertruck and one about Apple versus OpenAI, do not directly tell us anything about how much Musk will post that week. No news was provided that gives a clear signal about his expected posting volume. The kind of development that would matter here is anything that might cause Musk to become unusually active or quiet on X, such as a major controversy, a company announcement, or a personal event. Musk's posting behavior is genuinely unpredictable from week to week. His volume can spike sharply if a news story pulls him into debate, or drop if he is traveling or occupied with business. The market spreads its probability across several ranges, with no single bracket above 17%, which reflects real uncertainty. The count also depends on a technical tracker, and edge cases like deleted posts or main-feed replies add small but real ambiguity. There is no reliable way to forecast a specific weekly post count for anyone.

The odds right now

• 180-19917%
• 200-21917%
• 220-23916%
• 240-25914%
• 160-17911%
• 140-1599%
• 260-2799%
• 380-3996%
• 280-2996%
• 360-3796%
• 400-4195%
• 300-3193%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 14, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from August 7 12:00 PM ET to August 14, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.