Elon Musk # tweets in July 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple count: how many times did Elon Musk post on X (formerly Twitter) during July 2026? The ranges shown, 800-839, 840-879, and 880-919, each represent a band of total posts, and you are picking which band the final count falls into. A lower range winning means he posted less actively that month; a higher range means he was more prolific. Replies to other people do not count, but reposts and quote posts do. The market settles using a specific tracking tool called xtracker.polymarket.com, which automatically counts Musk's posts throughout July. The final number shown there on or after August 1, 2026 determines which range wins. Deleted posts still count if the tracker caught them within about five minutes of posting. Replies are excluded, but replies that appear on the main feed rather than in a thread may still be counted. If the tracker fails, X itself becomes the backup source. None of the recent news provided relates to this market. The headlines are about unrelated cultural and policy topics. The kind of news that would matter here includes changes in Musk's public activity, major events drawing his attention, or anything that might cause him to post significantly more or less than usual, such as a big business announcement or a period of travel. Musk's posting volume is genuinely hard to predict because it depends on his personal mood, news cycles, business events, and platform activity on any given day. The three ranges are clustered fairly close together, so even a week of unusually high or low activity could shift the result. The market places the most weight on the 800-839 range at 34%, but the 840-879 range is close behind at 29%, meaning participants are meaningfully split. Small day-to-day changes add up across 31 days in ways that are very hard to forecast.

The odds right now

• 800-839+34.3 pts (1w)43%
• 840-879+34.4 pts (1w)36%
• 880-919+7.0 pts (1w)9%
• 760-799-1.7 pts (1w)7%
• 920-959+0.7 pts (1w)2%
• 720-759-17.1 pts (1w)0%
• 960-999-0.1 pts (1w)0%
• 1000-1039-0.2 pts (1w)0%
• <200%
• 20-390%
• 40-590%
• 60-790%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 1, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X during the month of July 2026. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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