Elon Musk # tweets July 28 - August 4, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X in one specific week? The brackets you see, like 180-199 or 200-219, are ranges for his total post count. A Yes on any bracket means his actual post count lands inside that range. It is not about what he says, just how much he posts, counting original posts, reposts, and quote posts but not regular replies. At the end of the week, a tool called xtracker.polymarket.com counts every qualifying post Musk made between July 28 at 12:00 PM Eastern time and August 4 at 12:00 PM Eastern time. Qualifying posts include main feed posts, reposts, and quote posts. Regular replies do not count, but a reply that appears on the main feed does count. Deleted posts also count if the tracker caught them within about five minutes of posting. The bracket whose number range matches that final count is the one that resolves Yes. One news item is relevant here: Musk publicly fired back at an Economist reporter on July 25, which shows he was actively posting and engaging in disputes just days before this market window opens. That kind of combative moment often comes with a burst of posting activity. The other headlines in the provided news have no clear connection to Musk's posting behavior during this specific week. Musk's posting volume swings dramatically from week to week based on events, controversies, and his mood, making any specific range genuinely hard to pin down. The three leading brackets are all close in probability, around 13-15% each, which tells you the market itself sees no clear frontrunner. A single big news event, a political controversy, or an unusually quiet week on his end could push the count well outside the leading ranges. There is no formula for predicting how active one person will be on social media.

The odds right now

• 180-19914%
• 200-21914%
• 160-17913%
• 220-23912%
• 240-25911%
• 140-1598%
• 260-2798%
• 120-1396%
• 100-1194%
• 280-2994%
• 300-3193%
• 320-3393%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 4, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 28 12:00 PM ET to August 4, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.