Elon Musk # tweets July 31 - August 7, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple counting question: how many times will Elon Musk post on X during one specific week in 2026? The outcome buckets you can pick from represent ranges, like 240-259 posts or 260-279 posts. A 'Yes' on any given range means his post count lands inside that range for the week. It is not about what he says, just how many times he posts, including reposts and quote posts but not counting replies. The market settles based on a specific post-tracking tool called xtracker.polymarket.com, which counts Musk's main-feed posts, quote posts, and reposts between July 31 and August 7, 2026 at 12:00 PM Eastern each day. Replies do not count, unless they appear on the main feed rather than as a direct reply thread. Deleted posts still count if the tracker caught them within roughly five minutes. Whichever post-count range his final tally falls into is the one that resolves as correct. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching would be anything that affects how active Musk is on X, such as a major business event, a political moment, or a personal announcement that historically triggers bursts of posting activity. Musk's posting volume swings dramatically week to week based on news cycles, his mood, and what is happening in business or politics. Even people who track him closely would find it hard to narrow down a specific 20-post range a year in advance. The three leading ranges are all priced close to each other, around 14-18%, which tells you the market itself sees this as genuinely spread across many possibilities. A slow news week could mean far fewer posts; a chaotic one could push well past 300.

The odds right now

• 240-25918%
• 220-23917%
• 260-27914%
• 200-21914%
• 280-29911%
• 180-19910%
• 300-3196%
• 160-1795%
• 320-3394%
• 140-1593%
• 340-3591%
• 360-3791%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 7, 2026

This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from July 31 12:00 PM ET to August 7, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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