FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks whether the FCC will officially strip a broadcast license from a major TV station on ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox before the end of 2026. A Yes means the government agency that regulates American airwaves takes the formal, documented step of killing a big network station's right to broadcast. A No means that does not happen, even if there is plenty of political pressure, public threats, or angry statements aimed at these networks. It resolves Yes only if the FCC issues an official order, public notice, or formal statement that clearly announces it is revoking or refusing to renew the license of a qualifying full-power station. The bar is high and specific: threats, presidential pressure, individual commissioner statements, leaks, and conditional warnings all count for nothing. It must be a decided action, through official FCC channels, against a full-power ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox station, by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM Eastern time. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover a Thai rail incident, a mining company, and an AI story. There is no FCC-related news in the provided feed. The kind of development worth watching for would be an official FCC vote, a formal license renewal proceeding against a major network station, or an adopted Commission order targeting a qualifying broadcaster. The market prices this at just 6%, reflecting how rare this event would be historically. The FCC has essentially never revoked a major network broadcast license. The main uncertainty is not whether two equally likely outcomes exist, but simply whether an extraordinary and unprecedented action occurs before the deadline. Political pressure on networks has existed in past administrations without producing license revocations, and the formal legal process makes a sudden action difficult. The small remaining uncertainty is the genuinely unexpected.

The odds right now

• FCC revokes a major network broadcast license by December 31, 2026?6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Communications Commission (FCC), or an authorized representative of the FCC, publicly and officially announces the revocation, cancellation, denial of renewal, or non-renewal of the broadcast license of any full-power ABC, CBS, NBC, or Fox television station, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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