FL-02 Democratic Primary Winner: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks who will win the Democratic Party's nomination to run for Florida's 2nd congressional district seat in the U.S. House in 2026. A win for Yen Bailey means she gets the Democratic nomination; a win for Amanda Green or Nic Zateslo means one of them does instead. This is not about who wins the general election in November, only who wins the Democratic primary vote on August 18, 2026. The market settles on whoever officially wins the Democratic primary election on August 18, 2026. The result is confirmed using official Democratic Party sources, including democrats.org. One important edge case: if that winner is later replaced as the nominee before the general election, the market still resolves based on who won the primary, not the replacement. If no nominee is confirmed by November 3, 2026, the market resolves as 'Other'. None of the provided news headlines relate to this race. They cover topics from Malaysia, Indonesia, India, and Formula 1, with no connection to Florida politics or this primary. To follow this race, the developments worth watching would be local endorsements, candidate fundraising totals, and any shifts in Democratic voter registration in the FL-02 district. The market is genuinely competitive, with Yen Bailey at 39% and Amanda Green close behind at 33%, meaning no candidate has a commanding lead. Primary elections are harder to predict than general elections because turnout is lower and less predictable, small shifts in who shows up can flip results, and polling of low-turnout primaries is often thin or unavailable. The roughly 21% not assigned to any named candidate also leaves room for surprises.

The odds right now

• Yen Bailey40%
• Amanda Green33%
• Nic Zateslo7%
• Brice Barnes6%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves August 18, 2026

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the FL-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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