Highest Mt. Washington wind speed in July?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking how fast the wind will blow at the top of Mt. Washington, New Hampshire during July 2026, specifically whether it will hit certain high speeds. Mt. Washington is famous for extreme winds, but July is actually its calmest season. The three thresholds, 105, 110, and 115 mph, represent genuinely exceptional gusts even for this mountain. A 'Yes' on any of them means that speed was recorded at least once during the month. A 'No' means the peak gust stayed below that threshold all July. The market settles based on official daily wind speed data published by the Mt. Washington Observatory in their monthly F6 weather reports. If the highest single gust recorded at the summit during July 2026 meets or exceeds a given threshold, that tier resolves Yes. One important detail: speeds are recorded as whole numbers, so 104.9 mph would count as 104 mph and would not trigger the 105 mph threshold. Data revisions are accepted until the first August reading is published, after which the record is locked. None of the provided news headlines are relevant to this market. They cover wildfires in Oregon and unrelated topics, which have no bearing on wind conditions at Mt. Washington in New Hampshire. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a major storm system or unusual weather pattern tracked toward the northeastern United States in July 2026. July is historically the calmest month on Mt. Washington, so extreme gusts above 105 mph are genuinely rare in summer, and the market prices reflect that, with the highest tier sitting at just 4%. The main uncertainty is simply whether an unusual weather event, like a powerful nor'easter or remnants of a tropical system, pushes into New England this July. These events are hard to forecast weeks out. With a week still remaining in the month as of the latest news date, the window is not yet closed.

The odds right now

• ≥85 mph+0.1 pts (1w)100%
• ≥90 mph+0.2 pts (1w)99%
• ≥95 mph+0.4 pts (1w)99%
• ≥100 mph+0.4 pts (1w)99%
• ≥105 mph-35.5 pts (1w)9%
• ≥110 mph-39.0 pts (1w)6%
• ≥115 mph-11.3 pts (1w)3%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 31, 2026

This market will resolve based on the highest wind speed, in miles per hour, reported on the summit of Mt. Washington in New Hampshire in July, 2026. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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