Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the peak daytime temperature be in Amsterdam? The options are specific whole-number degree targets, with 23°C and 24°C each seen as roughly equally likely right now. In practical terms, 23°C feels like a mild, pleasant summer day, about 73°F, while 25°C is noticeably warmer, around 77°F. The question is simply which of those bands the thermometer hits at its highest point that day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol on July 24, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 23.7°C would count as 23°C, not 24°C. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to Amsterdam weather on July 24, 2026 was provided. That is completely normal at this distance from the date. What would actually matter is a reliable medium-range weather forecast for the Netherlands issued in the days just before July 24, since weather prediction beyond about a week is generally quite uncertain. Predicting a single day's peak temperature over a year in advance is genuinely very hard. Climate history can tell us what is typical for late July in Amsterdam, which is roughly why the market clusters around 23 and 24 degrees. But the actual reading on any specific day depends on wind direction, cloud cover, and passing weather systems that no one can foresee this far out. The tight spread between the top two options also means even a small shift in conditions flips the outcome.

The odds right now

• 24°C39%
• 23°C37%
• 25°C14%
• 22°C11%
• 21°C2%
• 26°C2%
• 20°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 19°C0%
• 18°C or below0%
• 28°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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