Highest temperature in Amsterdam on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the highest temperature be in Amsterdam on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it uses the weather station at Amsterdam Airport Schiphol. The options are whole-number temperatures in Celsius, and you are picking which one the thermometer will peak at that day. For reference, 19°C is about 66°F, 20°C is 68°F, and 21°C is about 70°F, so we are talking about a mild to moderately warm summer day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Schiphol Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on the weather site Wunderground. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 19.7°C would count as 19°C, not 20°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on Wunderground. Any corrections to the July 23 data made after that cutoff are ignored. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline listed is about a business school in India and has no connection to Amsterdam weather. What would actually matter here is an extended weather forecast for the Netherlands around July 23, 2026, or seasonal climate outlooks for Western Europe that month. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely hard, and July 23, 2026 is still in the future. The market currently leans toward 20°C at 43%, with 19°C close behind at 34%. But Amsterdam's summer temperatures can shift quickly depending on wind direction, cloud cover, and whether a warm or cool air mass moves in. A one-degree difference is a very small margin, and the precise Schiphol reading could easily land anywhere across a several-degree range.

The odds right now

• 20°C48%
• 19°C34%
• 21°C13%
• 18°C7%
• 22°C2%
• 17°C1%
• 23°C0%
• 24°C0%
• 16°C or below0%
• 26°C or higher0%
• 25°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Amsterdam Airport Schiphol Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nl/schiphol/EHAM. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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