Highest temperature in Shanghai on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, how hot will Shanghai get? Specifically, it asks which temperature band the single hottest reading of the day will fall into, measured at Shanghai Pudong International Airport. A result of 35°C means the peak heat that day stays in the mid-30s, a fairly hot summer day. A result of 37°C means the city hits a serious heat level, close to body temperature, the kind of day where being outside feels punishing. At the end of July 23, 2026, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground historical data page for Shanghai Pudong Airport and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, in whole degrees Celsius. Whichever temperature band contains that number wins. One important detail: the temperature must be a whole number, so 35.7°C would count as 35°C, not 36°C. The market waits until the first data point for July 24 appears before it is officially settled. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The only headline listed is about a business school event in India, which has no connection to Shanghai temperatures. The kind of news that would matter here includes seasonal forecasts for eastern China in late July, or reports of unusual heat or cold patterns developing in the region as the date approaches. Late July in Shanghai is reliably hot, and the market reflects that: 35°C and 36°C together account for roughly two-thirds of the probability, with 37°C and other outcomes splitting the rest. The real difficulty is that a single day's peak temperature is genuinely hard to pin down even a day or two in advance. Whether clouds roll in, whether a sea breeze arrives, or whether a heat dome lingers can shift the high by several degrees. A year out, this is essentially a question about the shape of the distribution, not a knowable outcome.

The odds right now

• 35°C34%
• 36°C33%
• 37°C17%
• 34°C11%
• 38°C4%
• 33°C3%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 39°C1%
• 30°C or below0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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