Highest temperature in Ankara on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Ankara on July 25, 2026? The temperature is measured at Esenboğa International Airport, which sits on a plateau north of the city center. Each answer option is a specific temperature in Celsius, and you are picking which one matches the actual peak. To give a rough feel: 19°C is a cool, almost autumn-like July day, while 21°C is still mild by Ankara's standards, where July highs often reach well into the mid-to-upper twenties. The market settles on whichever temperature bucket matches the single highest reading recorded at Esenboğa Airport on July 25, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The number is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so 20.7°C would count as 20°C, for example. The reading is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on that page. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. The two news items provided are about a Malaysian hospital and an Indian temple dispute, and neither has any connection to Ankara's weather. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date is any extended forecast for central Anatolia around July 25, especially signals of unusual heat or a cold front passing through the region. July in Ankara is typically warm and dry, which is why the market clusters around 19 to 21°C rather than, say, 30°C. But the airport station sits at higher elevation than the city, which tends to read cooler than urban areas. The event is still a year away, so no forecast exists yet. Year-to-year variability in July temperatures can span several degrees depending on whether a heat wave or a cooler air mass arrives that week. That timing is genuinely impossible to know this far out.

The odds right now

• 21°C26%
• 20°C23%
• 19°C22%
• 22°C13%
• 18°C10%
• 23°C10%
• 24°C3%
• 17°C2%
• 25°C1%
• 16°C or below0%
• 26°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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