Highest temperature in Ankara on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Ankara, Turkey? Specifically, it asks which single temperature the thermometer will peak at, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the Esenboğa International Airport weather station. A result of 30°C means the day's high sits right at that mark, roughly 86°F, a warm but not extreme summer day for Ankara. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading recorded at Esenboğa Airport on July 23, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The reading must be a whole number in Celsius, so 30°C wins the 30°C option, not 30.5°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that site. Any late corrections to the July 23 data made after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the kind of development worth watching for would be long-range seasonal climate outlooks for central Turkey in summer 2026, though forecasts that far out are generally not reliable. Weather more than a few days out is genuinely hard to predict, and this market is over a year away, so any odds right now are based largely on historical patterns rather than actual forecasts. Ankara in late July is typically hot and dry, but year-to-year variation is real. The spread across 29°C, 30°C, and 31°C is tight, meaning a single unusually hot or cool day shifts the result entirely. Even on the day itself, readings can vary depending on timing and local conditions.

The odds right now

• 30°C44%
• 31°C31%
• 29°C13%
• 32°C5%
• 28°C3%
• 27°C2%
• 33°C1%
• 26°C or below0%
• 34°C0%
• 35°C0%
• 36°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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