Highest temperature in Paris on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Paris get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature bucket will contain the single highest reading of the day at one Paris weather station. The three choices are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C, which in everyday terms is a range from a warm summer day (around 75°F) to a fairly hot one (around 79°F). You pick the bucket that matches the peak temperature recorded that day. The market settles based on the highest temperature logged at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Readings are rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 25.7°C counts as 25°C, not 26°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; any corrections after do not. There is no option outside the three listed, so if the actual high falls outside this range, that would be an unexpected situation worth watching. No relevant news was provided for this market. That is completely normal for a weather question this far in advance. What would actually matter closer to the date is a short-range weather forecast for the Paris region for late July 2026, particularly whether a heat dome, Atlantic front, or cooler Atlantic airflow is expected for that specific day. Late July in Paris can vary noticeably from year to year, and the three options here span only a three-degree range, which is a genuinely tight window. A passing cloud front or a heat wave arriving a day early or late could shift the peak reading by just enough to change the outcome. The market currently splits fairly evenly across the top two buckets, reflecting that even a good forecast issued days before the date often cannot pin down the exact peak temperature to a single degree.

The odds right now

• 25°C39%
• 26°C39%
• 24°C17%
• 27°C8%
• 28°C2%
• 23°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 21°C or below0%
• 31°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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