Highest temperature in Houston on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Houston get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Hobby Airport, and which 2-degree range that peak falls into. The leading ranges are 92-93°F, 94-95°F, and 90-91°F. To picture it: a July afternoon in Houston where the hottest moment of the day lands somewhere between a warm 90°F and a sweltering 95°F or beyond. After July 23, 2026 ends, whoever runs this market checks the Weather Underground page for Houston's Hobby Airport station. They look at the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit. Whichever 2-degree range contains that number wins. One small detail: if Weather Underground updates the reading before the first data point of July 24 appears, that revised number counts. After that cutoff, no further corrections are considered. No weather-related news was provided for this market. The one headline listed is about a Whitney Houston charity auction, which has no connection to Houston weather. Going forward, what would genuinely matter is any extended forecast for Houston around late July 2026, or news about unusual heat patterns in the Gulf Coast region as that date approaches. Late July in Houston is reliably hot, but the exact peak on any single day is hard to pin down this far in advance. The spread across three leading ranges (90-91, 92-93, and 94-95°F) reflects real uncertainty: cloud cover, humidity, wind, and whether a sea breeze rolls in can shift the daily high by several degrees. July 2026 is still far enough away that no forecast exists yet. The market is fairly spread across the top three ranges, which honestly reflects how genuinely open the question is.

The odds right now

• 94-95°F25%
• 92-93°F24%
• 90-91°F23%
• 96-97°F18%
• 88-89°F13%
• 98-99°F3%
• 87°F or below2%
• 100-101°F0%
• 102-103°F0%
• 104-105°F0%
• 106°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the William P. Hobby Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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