Highest temperature in Austin on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature of the day, measured in whole degrees Fahrenheit at Austin's main airport weather station. You pick the two-degree range you think that peak temperature falls into. For example, '96-97°F' means the hottest moment of that day hits either 96 or 97 degrees, not higher or lower. The market settles using the official high temperature recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport (station code KAUS) on July 24, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Whatever the highest single reading is that day, whichever range it falls into wins. The data only locks in after the first reading from July 25 appears, so minor late corrections to July 24 data can still count before that cutoff. Temperatures are rounded to whole degrees only. No recent news relevant to this market was provided. Since the date is still over a year away, no meaningful weather forecast exists yet for July 24, 2026. The kind of information that would matter closer to the date includes extended forecasts from the National Weather Service, any emerging climate patterns like La Niña or El Niño, and reports of unusual heat building over Texas. Austin in late July is reliably hot, which is why the market clusters tightly around 94-99°F, but pinning down a specific two-degree window more than a year out is genuinely difficult. Day-to-day highs depend on cloud cover, wind direction, humidity, and whether a weather system passes through. The market currently puts the most weight on 96-97°F at 44%, but meaningful probability is spread across neighboring ranges too, reflecting real uncertainty about which precise band the thermometer lands in.

The odds right now

• 96-97°F44%
• 94-95°F30%
• 98-99°F18%
• 92-93°F4%
• 100-101°F3%
• 90-91°F1%
• 102-103°F1%
• 88-89°F1%
• 104-105°F1%
• 106°F or higher0%
• 87°F or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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