Highest temperature in Austin on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Austin, Texas get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks you to pick a temperature range for the single hottest reading of the day at Austin's main airport. Think of it as guessing the peak afternoon heat. A 'Yes' for any given range means the thermometer tops out inside that band, for example between 100 and 101 degrees Fahrenheit, and not in any other range. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading recorded at Austin-Bergstrom International Airport on July 23, 2026, pulled from the Weather Underground website. Whichever range contains that peak number wins. Temperatures are measured in whole degrees, so 100.7°F would count as 100°F. The result is locked in once the first reading from July 24 appears on that site, after which no corrections to July 23 data will change the outcome. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. For a weather market this far out, the most relevant things to watch would be long-range climate forecasts for Texas in late July, or any unusual atmospheric patterns developing over the region as the date gets closer. Seasonal climate outlooks from NOAA would be the most useful source to check nearer to July 2026. Late July in Austin is reliably hot, but the exact peak on any single day is genuinely hard to pin down a year in advance. The market spreads its weight across three ranges, with 98-99°F and 100-101°F tied at 35% each, reflecting real uncertainty even within a narrow band. Cloud cover, humidity, wind direction, and whether a brief weather system passes through can all shift the peak by a few degrees. Long-range forecasting at this precision, for one specific day, is beyond current science.

The odds right now

• 98-99°F39%
• 100-101°F36%
• 102-103°F14%
• 96-97°F10%
• 104-105°F4%
• 94-95°F2%
• 93°F or below0%
• 106-107°F0%
• 110-111°F0%
• 112°F or higher0%
• 108-109°F0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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