Highest temperature in Beijing on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the hottest moment of the day feel like at Beijing's main international airport? The options are specific temperatures in Celsius, so you are picking which degree reading the thermometer will hit at its peak. Yes for a given option means the day's highest temperature lands exactly on that number; all other options resolve No. Think of it as guessing the single hottest reading of a summer day in Beijing. After July 24, 2026 ends, someone checks the Weather Underground records for Beijing Capital International Airport (station code ZBAA) and finds the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears before it settles, to allow any late corrections to July 24 data. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No specific recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the most useful things to watch for closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for Beijing in late July, any unusual climate patterns in East Asia that summer, and historical temperature records for that date at the airport station. Late July in Beijing is reliably hot, but pinning down a single degree is genuinely difficult. The market spreads its probability fairly evenly across 30°C, 31°C, and 32°C, which honestly reflects how hard this is. A one-degree swing can come from a passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or a brief weather system. Long-range forecasts a year out have very limited accuracy. The spread across three close options shows the market is essentially saying it cannot confidently separate these outcomes yet.

The odds right now

• 31°C30%
• 30°C27%
• 32°C25%
• 29°C10%
• 28°C5%
• 33°C4%
• 27°C2%
• 34°C or higher1%
• 25°C0%
• 26°C0%
• 24°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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