Highest temperature in Beijing on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how hot will Beijing get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks you to pick the peak temperature for that single day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the weather station inside Beijing Capital International Airport. A result of 29°C means the hottest moment of the day hit exactly 29°C, nothing higher. Each temperature option is its own outcome, so this is less a Yes/No question and more a multiple-choice guess about a single day's weather. After July 23, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground record for Beijing Capital International Airport (station code ZBAA) and finds the single highest temperature logged that day, rounded to a whole degree Celsius. Whatever number that reading shows, the matching temperature option wins. There is a small timing rule: the market waits until the first data point for July 24 appears before finalising, to allow any last-minute corrections to July 23's readings. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No recent news relevant to Beijing's July 2026 weather was provided. The only headline given is about a business school event in India, which has no connection to this market. What would actually matter here is seasonal weather outlooks or climate pattern forecasts for northern China in late July, but none of that information is available to share right now. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now. Late July in Beijing is peak summer, so extreme heat is historically common, but the exact daily high on one specific date can shift several degrees based on passing weather systems, cloud cover, or wind direction. The market spreads probability across at least three close temperature options, 27, 28, and 29°C, reflecting real uncertainty. A single unusual weather event could easily push the result outside any of the current leading options.

The odds right now

• 28°C27%
• 29°C26%
• 30°C16%
• 27°C14%
• 31°C7%
• 26°C5%
• 32°C3%
• 25°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%
• 24°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.