Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the warmest temperature of the day be in Buenos Aires? July is winter in Argentina, so we are talking about cool, mild temperatures, not summer heat. The options shown, 16°C, 17°C, and 18°C, are roughly 61 to 64°F. The market is not asking about the average temperature or the overnight low, just the single highest reading of that one day. The market settles based on one specific reading: the peak temperature logged at Ezeiza International Airport (the main Buenos Aires airport station) on July 24, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option contains that final peak reading wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that site, so last-minute revisions before that cutoff still count, but corrections after it do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the kind of updates that would matter are seasonal weather forecasts or climate pattern outlooks for southern South America in July 2026. Those do not meaningfully exist yet at this distance. Weather prediction more than a year out is genuinely very difficult. Even professional forecasters cannot reliably predict a single day's high temperature weeks in advance, let alone a year ahead. The spread across the options reflects this: the market leans toward 16°C at 37%, but 17°C and 18°C each hold real probability too. Winter days in Buenos Aires can vary noticeably depending on whether a cold air mass or a warmer northerly wind dominates, and that kind of short-range variation is simply unknowable this far out.

The odds right now

• 16°C38%
• 17°C27%
• 15°C15%
• 18°C14%
• 14°C2%
• 19°C2%
• 13°C1%
• 20°C1%
• 12°C1%
• 11°C or below0%
• 21°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Minister Pistarini Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ar/ezeiza/SAEZ. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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