Highest temperature in Busan on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: how hot will Busan, South Korea get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks for the single highest temperature reading that day at the Gimhae International Airport weather station. The three options are 32°C, 33°C, or 34°C (roughly 90°F, 91°F, and 93°F). You are picking which of those three whole-number readings will turn out to be the peak temperature for that day. The market currently treats 33°C as the most likely outcome, at 46%. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded on July 23, 2026, at Gimhae Airport, as shown on Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 33.7°C would count as 33°C, not 34°C. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 24 appears on that site. Any corrections made before that cutoff count; any corrections after do not. If the actual peak falls outside 32, 33, or 34°C, the market would need a catch-all option to resolve, so check the full option list carefully. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather question this far out, the kinds of developments worth watching would be seasonal climate forecasts for the Korean peninsula in late July, any emerging heat wave patterns in East Asia, or unusual sea-surface temperature readings in the waters around Busan, since the sea nearby can moderate or intensify summer heat. Long-range weather forecasting is genuinely hard, and July 2026 is still well over a year away, which makes precision forecasting nearly impossible right now. Even on the day itself, a single degree of difference between outcomes can come down to cloud cover, sea breeze timing, or a passing shower. The three options are clustered very tightly together, just one degree apart each, which means a small shift in conditions could swing the result from any one bucket to another. The market splits the probability meaningfully across all three, reflecting that real uncertainty honestly.

The odds right now

• 33°C53%
• 32°C26%
• 34°C18%
• 35°C3%
• 31°C2%
• 30°C1%
• 36°C0%
• 37°C0%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 38°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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