Highest temperature in Sao Paulo on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: what will the highest temperature of the day be in São Paulo on July 23, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The reading comes from a weather station at Guarulhos International Airport, which serves as the official thermometer for this question. A Yes on 21°C means the day's peak hits exactly 21°C, not 20°C or 22°C. Each temperature option is a specific whole-number target, so only one can win. After July 23, 2026 ends, the market checks the Guarulhos Airport weather station data on Weather Underground and finds the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. The market cannot settle until the first data point from July 24 appears on that site, to make sure the full day's readings are in. Any late corrections to July 23 data are accepted until that cutoff, then ignored. No recent news was provided that relates to this market. For a question like this, the most useful things to watch closer to July 23 would be seasonal weather forecasts for São Paulo and any regional climate anomalies, since July is mid-winter in Brazil and temperatures can shift notably with cold fronts coming up from the south. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a week or two out, and this market settles over a year from now, so current odds reflect historical patterns rather than a real forecast. July is winter in São Paulo, and daily highs in the low-to-mid 20s are typical, which is why 20°C to 22°C holds most of the probability. But a strong cold front could push the high down, or a warm spell could push it above 22°C. A single day's reading at one airport station leaves real room for surprise.

The odds right now

• 21°C36%
• 22°C24%
• 23°C16%
• 20°C14%
• 24°C8%
• 19°C3%
• 18°C2%
• 25°C1%
• 17°C or below1%
• 26°C0%
• 27°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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