Highest temperature in Busan on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, what will the single hottest temperature of the day be in Busan, South Korea? The answer is split into ranges, and the market is essentially a vote on which range wins. July in Busan is deep summer, so the debate is really about whether it is a typical hot day around 33-34°C (roughly 91-93°F) or whether it pushes a degree or two hotter into the mid-35s. The market settles based on one specific number: the highest temperature recorded that day at Gimhae International Airport, pulled from the Weather Underground website for that station. Whoever runs the market reads that peak daily figure once the next day's data appears, and whichever temperature range contains that number wins. The reading is in whole degrees Celsius, no decimals, so a reading of 34.7°C would count as 34°C, not 35°C. That rounding detail could matter if the temperature lands right on a boundary. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The only headline is about flood relief in a region of India, which has no bearing on Busan's weather. To follow this market usefully, you would want to watch extended weather forecasts for Busan as July 24, 2026 gets closer, particularly any signals about heat waves or unusual pressure systems over the Korean Peninsula. Weather more than a year away is genuinely unpredictable, and that is the core challenge here. Even professional forecasters cannot reliably predict a single day's peak temperature a year in advance. The market's spread across three options (33°C, 34°C, and 35°C) reflects real uncertainty, with no single outcome commanding a strong majority. Busan's summer highs can swing a few degrees based on wind direction, humidity, and whether a heat dome sits over Korea, none of which anyone can know this far out.

The odds right now

• 34°C41%
• 35°C26%
• 33°C23%
• 36°C7%
• 32°C5%
• 37°C2%
• 30°C or below1%
• 31°C1%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Gimhae Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Gimhae Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/busan/RKPK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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