Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is simply asking: how warm will Cape Town get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it asks whether the day's peak temperature at Cape Town's airport will hit 17°C, 18°C, or 19°C. July is mid-winter in Cape Town, so these are cool, mild temperatures, not a heat wave. Think of a crisp winter afternoon, not a summer day. Whichever single degree matches the recorded high for that day is the one that wins. On July 24, 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Cape Town International Airport is read from the Weather Underground website, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever option, 17°C, 18°C, or 19°C, matches that number is the winner. The market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears on that site before settling, to allow for any last-minute corrections to the July 24 reading. After that cut-off, no further changes to the data are considered. None of the provided news stories are relevant to this market. They cover topics like urban infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and UK politics, none of which affect Cape Town's weather. To watch for things that would actually matter here, you could look for medium-range weather forecasts for Cape Town in the days leading up to July 24, or reports of any unusual cold fronts or warm air masses moving toward the Western Cape. Cape Town's winter highs are genuinely variable from day to day. A cold front moving in from the South Atlantic can push the high down to 15°C or lower, while a break in the clouds and a gentle Berg wind from inland can push it above 20°C. The three options cover a narrow three-degree window, so a single unexpected weather system easily shifts the answer outside the most popular choice. With the date still roughly a year away, no forecast can reliably pin down a single degree this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 18°C45%
• 17°C32%
• 19°C22%
• 16°C5%
• 20°C1%
• 15°C1%
• 21°C0%
• 14°C0%
• 22°C or higher0%
• 12°C or below0%
• 13°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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