Highest temperature in Cape Town on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 23, 2026, what will the single highest temperature of the day be at Cape Town's main airport? July is mid-winter in Cape Town, so daily highs are typically cool, running in the mid-teens Celsius, which is roughly 57 to 61 degrees Fahrenheit. The three options, 14°C, 15°C, and 16°C, represent a narrow band of about two degrees total, so this is really a question of whether that particular winter day lands on the cooler or slightly warmer end of normal. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged at Cape Town International Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical page for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. If the actual high falls outside the three listed options, that outcome would not match any available choice, which is worth noting. There is no relevant recent news provided for this market. The one headline supplied is about a Vermont governor's race, which has no connection to Cape Town weather. The kind of news that would actually matter here is a medium-range weather forecast for Cape Town in late July 2026, or any meteorological outlook for the Western Cape region around that date. The core difficulty is that weather forecasts beyond a few days are genuinely uncertain, and this date is roughly a year away, making any precision nearly impossible right now. The three options span only two degrees Celsius total, so even a small forecast error shifts the outcome between buckets. Cape Town's winter highs in July are fairly consistent historically, which is why the market clusters around 14 to 15°C, but a passing cold front or a warmer inland wind could easily nudge the reading one degree in either direction.

The odds right now

• 15°C39%
• 14°C31%
• 16°C14%
• 13°C10%
• 17°C3%
• 18°C or higher1%
• 12°C1%
• 11°C1%
• 10°C0%
• 9°C0%
• 8°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Cape Town International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Cape Town International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/za/matroosfontein/FACT. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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