Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chengdu get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants you to pick the peak temperature for that single day, measured at Chengdu's main airport weather station. A 'Yes' on 39°C means the hottest reading of the day lands exactly at 39 degrees Celsius, not 38, not 40. Each temperature option is its own separate outcome, and only one of them wins. Think of it as picking which rung on a thermometer the day's highest point will land on. After July 25 ends, the market checks Weather Underground's data for the Chengdu Shuangliu Airport station and reads the single highest temperature recorded that day, rounded to a whole number in Celsius. Whichever option matches that number wins. The market waits until the first data point from July 26 appears before settling, to allow any last-minute revisions to July 25 readings. After that cutoff, no corrections to the data are considered, even if Weather Underground updates the record later. No relevant news was provided for this market. That is normal for a weather question set a year out. What would actually matter to watch closer to the date: seasonal forecasts for Chengdu in late July, any heat wave warnings issued by Chinese meteorological authorities, and whether regional climate patterns like La Niña or El Niño are active, since those can shift summer temperatures meaningfully. Weather on a specific future date is genuinely hard to predict, especially more than a year in advance. The three leading options, 39°C, 40°C, and 41°C, are priced almost equally, which reflects real uncertainty rather than a clear front-runner. Chengdu sits in a humid basin and gets serious summer heat, so the range itself is plausible, but a single degree either way depends on factors like cloud cover, wind, and humidity that no model can nail down this far out. Closer to the date, short-range forecasts become far more reliable.

The odds right now

• 39°C26%
• 40°C25%
• 41°C19%
• 38°C17%
• 37°C9%
• 36°C8%
• 42°C6%
• 35°C3%
• 34°C2%
• 33°C or below1%
• 43°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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