Highest temperature in Chengdu on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chengdu get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport weather station. Participants pick a temperature bucket, like 39°C, 40°C, or 41°C, and the correct one wins. To picture the scale: 40°C is 104°F, which is a seriously hot summer day, the kind where the air feels heavy and shade is urgent. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at Chengdu Shuangliu Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 39.7°C would count as 39°C. The final number is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears, after which any later corrections to the data are ignored. There are multiple temperature buckets, and whichever one contains the day's high temperature wins. The two news items provided are about Lebanese politics and a US court case involving Venezuela's Nicolas Maduro. Neither has any connection to weather in Chengdu. There is no relevant recent news to point to here. What would matter to watch is whether any meteorological services issue forecasts or heat warnings for Sichuan province as late July 2026 approaches. Weather this far out is genuinely hard to pin down. July is Chengdu's hottest month, so highs in the 37 to 41°C range are historically plausible, which is why the market spreads its probability across several buckets. The market currently leans toward 39°C but assigns real weight to 40°C and 41°C as well. A single passing storm or a shift in regional air pressure can move the actual high by several degrees. Long-range forecasts this specific are unreliable, so the uncertainty here is real and not manufactured.

The odds right now

• 39°C30%
• 40°C24%
• 41°C22%
• 38°C12%
• 42°C8%
• 37°C7%
• 36°C2%
• 35°C or below1%
• 43°C1%
• 44°C0%
• 45°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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