Highest temperature in Chicago on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chicago get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day, measured at O'Hare International Airport. The temperature ranges on offer, like 78-79°F or 80-81°F, represent roughly a warm-but-comfortable summer day in the upper 70s versus a noticeably hotter day pushing into the low 80s. Whichever range contains that peak reading wins. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Chicago O'Hare Airport on July 24, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole degree Fahrenheit, so 80.7°F would count as 80°F. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 25 appears, meaning any late corrections to July 24's data after that cutoff are ignored. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the date is still over a year away, there is nothing to report yet. The kind of news that would matter closer to the date includes seasonal weather outlooks from NOAA, forecasts for late July 2026, or unusual climate patterns affecting the Great Lakes region. Predicting a specific temperature range more than a year in advance is genuinely difficult. Weather forecasting becomes unreliable beyond about two weeks, so right now the market is essentially working from historical averages for late July in Chicago. The spread across the three leading ranges (78-79, 80-81, 82-83°F) reflects real uncertainty: a passing storm or a heat dome could shift the peak reading by several degrees, easily moving the outcome from one bucket to another.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F38%
• 78-79°F33%
• 82-83°F18%
• 84-85°F7%
• 76-77°F7%
• 75°F or below2%
• 86-87°F2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 90-91°F0%
• 92-93°F0%
• 94°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.