Highest temperature in Chicago on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chicago get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at O'Hare International Airport. The three choices are ranges: 76-77°F, 78-79°F, or 80-81°F. Think of it as picking the peak of the thermometer for that one summer day, measured in whole-degree Fahrenheit readings at one specific weather station on the northwest side of the city. The market settles based on the peak temperature logged at Chicago O'Hare Airport (station code KORD) on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground. Whichever two-degree range contains that peak reading wins. The market cannot close until the first data point from July 24 appears, so late-night readings on the 23rd are still counted. One detail worth knowing: if Weather Underground revises the temperature before that July 24 data point appears, the revised number is used. After that cutoff, no corrections are accepted. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Since the event is over a year away, the kind of news that would matter closer to the date includes extended weather forecasts, any unusual pressure systems over the Midwest, or climate pattern signals like El Niño or La Niña that can shift summer temperatures across the region. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict, and that is the core challenge here. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably forecast a single day's high temperature more than about two weeks ahead. The market is currently split mostly between 76-77°F and 78-79°F, with 80-81°F as a smaller possibility, reflecting that late July in Chicago typically lands in this range, but any given day could shift a few degrees in either direction based on wind direction, cloud cover, or a passing front, all of which are unknowable this far in advance.

The odds right now

• 78-79°F40%
• 76-77°F35%
• 80-81°F17%
• 74-75°F10%
• 82-83°F2%
• 72-73°F1%
• 84-85°F1%
• 67°F or below0%
• 68-69°F0%
• 70-71°F0%
• 86°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chicago O'Hare Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/il/chicago/KORD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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