Highest temperature in Chongqing on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Chongqing get on July 25, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the Jiangbei Airport weather station. You pick a temperature, like 39°C, 40°C, or 41°C, and if the day's peak matches that number, that option wins. Think of it as guessing the top of the thermometer for one summer day in one of China's hottest cities. The market settles on whichever temperature bracket contains the official daily high recorded at Chongqing Jiangbei Airport on July 25, 2026, as reported by Weather Underground. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree, so 39.7°C would count as 39°C, not 40°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 26 appears on the site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count; corrections after it do not. No relevant weather news was provided for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a seasonal forecast for late July in Chongqing, or any official heat advisory for the region around that date. Without that, the main reference point is Chongqing's historical reputation as one of China's "three furnace" cities, where late-July highs above 40°C are not unusual. Weather a year out is genuinely hard to predict, and even short-range forecasts for a single day can shift significantly. The market currently spreads its weight fairly evenly across 39°C, 40°C, and 41°C, which reflects real uncertainty about where the peak will land. A one-degree difference is within normal forecast error even 24 hours before. The specific airport station also matters: urban heat patterns can make one location read differently from a nearby one, so the choice of measurement point adds a small extra layer of unpredictability.

The odds right now

• 40°C33%
• 39°C28%
• 41°C23%
• 38°C12%
• 42°C6%
• 37°C2%
• 43°C1%
• 36°C1%
• 44°C or higher0%
• 35°C0%
• 34°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Chongqing Jiangbei International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chongqing/ZUCK. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.