Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 24, 2026, how hot will it get in Guangzhou? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature bucket the day's peak heat falls into: exactly 36°C (about 97°F), exactly 37°C (about 99°F), or 38°C and above (100°F or hotter). Think of it as picking the right shelf on a thermometer for the hottest moment of that single day. The answer comes from one specific source: the Weather Underground page for Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport (station code ZGGG). Whatever the highest temperature reading is on that page for July 24, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius, determines which option wins. The market cannot settle until at least one reading from July 25 appears on that page, confirming the previous day is complete. Any late corrections to the July 24 data are only counted before that first July 25 reading shows up. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of developments worth watching closer to the date would be extended weather forecasts for southern China in late July, any unusual heat wave patterns in the region, or climate anomalies affecting the Pearl River Delta area where Guangzhou sits. Late July in Guangzhou is reliably hot and humid, so the question is less about whether it will be hot and more about the exact degree. The market currently places 36°C and 37°C as the most likely outcomes, with 38°C or higher at 12%. The honest challenge is that single-day peak temperatures are sensitive to small shifts in wind, cloud cover, or passing rain, all of which are nearly impossible to forecast more than a few days out from July 2026.

The odds right now

• 36°C42%
• 37°C34%
• 35°C14%
• 38°C or higher9%
• 34°C3%
• 33°C1%
• 32°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 28°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.