Highest temperature in Wellington on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks a simple question: how warm will Wellington, New Zealand get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it is asking for the single highest temperature reading that day at Wellington International Airport, measured in whole degrees Celsius. A Yes for 14°C means the peak temperature that day lands exactly at 14°C, while the other options cover 13°C or 15°C. July is mid-winter in New Zealand, so the temperatures being discussed are cool but normal for that season. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Wellington International Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The reading is rounded to a whole number, so 13.7°C would count as 13°C, not 14°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any small corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count, but corrections after that point do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of development worth watching closer to the date would be a long-range weather forecast for Wellington in late July 2026, or any unusual climate pattern, such as a strong El Niño or La Niña signal, that might shift typical winter temperatures up or down. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this date is still over a year away, so any forecast today is essentially just a statistical guess based on historical patterns. Wellington is also famously windy and changeable, meaning even short-range forecasts for the city can miss by a few degrees. The market currently leans toward 14°C at 63%, reflecting typical mid-winter highs, but a cold snap or a mild westerly wind could easily push the reading one degree in either direction.

The odds right now

• 14°C63%
• 13°C19%
• 15°C19%
• 12°C1%
• 16°C1%
• 10°C0%
• 17°C0%
• 11°C0%
• 8°C or below0%
• 9°C0%
• 18°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.