Highest temperature in Guangzhou on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: on July 23, 2026, what will the single hottest reading of the day be at Guangzhou's Baiyun Airport weather station? Think of it like asking whether that day's peak afternoon heat will hit 34°C, 35°C, or 36°C. Each option is a specific whole-number temperature, and only one can win. Guangzhou in late July is deep in summer, so readings in this range are typical, but the exact peak on any one day varies. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at Guangzhou Baiyun Airport on July 23, 2026, as shown on Weather Underground's history page for that station. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so 34.7°C would count as 35°C, for example. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears on that page. Any corrections posted before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. For a weather question like this, what would matter closer to the date is short-range forecast data for Guangzhou in late July 2026, or any signals about unusually strong heat waves or typhoon-related cloud cover that might suppress temperatures that week. Weather on a specific future date over a year away is genuinely hard to call. The three leading options are closely bunched: 35°C at 36%, 34°C and 36°C both at 25%. That spread reflects real uncertainty. Late July in Guangzhou is reliably hot, but the exact daily peak depends on cloud cover, humidity, wind, and whether a tropical system is nearby. Even professional forecasters cannot reliably pin down a single day's high temperature more than a few days out.

The odds right now

• 35°C37%
• 36°C28%
• 34°C24%
• 33°C8%
• 37°C5%
• 32°C2%
• 31°C1%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C or higher1%
• 29°C or below0%
• 30°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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