Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 25?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: on July 25, 2026, how hot will it get in Hong Kong? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature bucket will contain the single highest reading of the day. A result of 34°C means the peak temperature hits somewhere in the 34-degree range, while 32°C means it stays cooler than most of Hong Kong's typical summer days. Late July in Hong Kong is deep summer, so temperatures in the low-to-mid 30s are completely normal. The market settles on whichever temperature range contains the official daily maximum recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory on July 25, 2026. The Observatory publishes an 'Absolute Daily Max' figure in its Daily Extract, measured to one decimal place, for example 33.7°C. That number determines the winning bucket. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects or revises that figure, the revision does not count. Only the first published reading is used. None of the recent news provided relates to Hong Kong weather or climate conditions. No relevant news is available to summarize here. The kind of development worth watching for would be long-range weather forecasts for Hong Kong in late July 2026, or any signals about typhoon activity or unusual heat patterns in the South China Sea region around that date. Weather forecasting a year out is genuinely very hard. Even professional meteorologists cannot reliably predict a single day's peak temperature that far in advance. The three leading buckets are closely bunched: 33°C at 32%, 34°C at 31%, and 32°C at 23%, meaning the market sees no clear favorite. Day-to-day variation in Hong Kong's summer can swing several degrees depending on wind direction, cloud cover, or nearby storm systems, all of which are impossible to know this far ahead.

The odds right now

• 33°C37%
• 32°C26%
• 34°C25%
• 35°C8%
• 31°C7%
• 36°C2%
• 37°C1%
• 30°C1%
• 29°C or below0%
• 38°C0%
• 39°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 25, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 25 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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