Highest temperature in Hong Kong on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Hong Kong get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know which temperature bucket the single highest reading of the day will fall into: around 32°C (roughly 90°F), 33°C (about 91°F), or 34°C (about 92°F). A "Yes" for any one bucket means the peak temperature that day lands inside that range. Think of it as a forecast competition with three possible winners, not a simple yes-or-no question. The market settles based on one specific number: the official "Absolute Daily Max" temperature published by the Hong Kong Observatory for July 24, 2026, measured in Celsius to one decimal place. Whichever bucket contains that number wins. The data comes from the Observatory's Daily Extract page. One important detail: if the Observatory later corrects or revises that number, those revisions are ignored. Only the first published figure counts. None of the recent news provided relates to Hong Kong weather or climate conditions. There are no weather forecasts or meteorological reports in the provided headlines to point to. To follow this market meaningfully, the thing to watch would be official weather forecasts from the Hong Kong Observatory as July 24 approaches, along with any signals about unusual heat patterns in the region that summer. Late July is deep inside Hong Kong's hot, humid summer, so the three options clustered around 32 to 34°C reflect a genuinely narrow and realistic range. The market prices 33°C as most likely at 40%, but 32°C and 34°C are close behind. Daily peak temperatures in summer depend on cloud cover, wind, and whether a tropical system is nearby, all of which are impossible to predict more than a day or two in advance from over a year out. The spread across three buckets honestly reflects that uncertainty.

The odds right now

• 33°C48%
• 34°C40%
• 35°C9%
• 32°C4%
• 31°C2%
• 36°C or higher1%
• 30°C0%
• 26°C or below0%
• 27°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 29°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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