Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day be in Istanbul on July 24, 2026, rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius? The three choices are 24°C, 25°C, or 26°C. Think of it like guessing the peak reading on a thermometer at Istanbul Airport on that specific afternoon. A "Yes" for 25°C, for example, means the single highest temperature recorded that day lands exactly at 25°C, not 24 and not 26. The market settles based on one specific data source: NOAA's hourly temperature log for Istanbul Airport (station code LTFM). After July 24 ends, whoever runs this market looks at every hourly reading for that day, finds the highest one, and whichever whole-degree option matches that peak wins. The result cannot be confirmed until the first reading of July 25 appears on that page, so settlement happens shortly after midnight local time. Any corrections NOAA makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. No recent news relevant to Istanbul weather on July 24, 2026 was provided. For a market like this, the kind of development worth watching would be extended weather forecasts for Istanbul in late July, or any signals about unusual heat or cool fronts moving through the region as the date approaches. Late July in Istanbul is reliably warm, so an extreme outlier is unlikely, but pinning the peak to a single degree is genuinely difficult. The difference between 24°C and 26°C is small and could swing based on one passing cloud or a sea breeze off the Bosphorus. The market prices all three options fairly close together, reflecting that. One year out, no forecast can tell you the exact peak, and even a day before, local conditions can surprise. Single-degree precision makes this inherently tricky.

The odds right now

• 25°C46%
• 26°C27%
• 24°C21%
• 27°C7%
• 23°C5%
• 28°C2%
• 22°C1%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C0%
• 31°C or higher0%
• 21°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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