Highest temperature in Istanbul on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of the day feel like at Istanbul's main airport on July 23, 2026? Participants pick a temperature in whole degrees Celsius, and whoever picks the correct peak temperature wins. It is not about the average for the day or the overnight low, just the single highest reading recorded at any point during that day. The market settles based on one specific data source: the NOAA weather station at Istanbul Airport (station code LTFM). After midnight ends July 23, the market looks at every hourly temperature reading for that day and finds the highest single number. Whatever whole-degree Celsius value that is determines which option wins. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 24 appears, so late revisions to July 23 data are accepted up until that cutoff, but not after. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. Because the event is over a year away, the most useful things to watch for closer to the date would be seasonal weather outlooks for Turkey in late July, and any unusually warm or cool weather patterns forming over the eastern Mediterranean region. July in Istanbul is reliably hot, but the exact peak on any single day is genuinely hard to pin down even a week in advance, let alone over a year out. The market currently places the most weight on 25°C, with 24°C close behind. However, a passing cloud, a sea breeze off the Bosphorus, or a short heat spike could each shift the peak reading by a degree. Because the resolution uses only whole-degree readings, a temperature of 24.7°C and 25.3°C lead to completely different outcomes.

The odds right now

• 25°C48%
• 24°C37%
• 26°C11%
• 23°C7%
• 27°C1%
• 22°C1%
• 28°C0%
• 21°C0%
• 20°C or below0%
• 29°C0%
• 30°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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