Highest temperature in Jeddah on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Jeddah get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of the day, measured in whole degrees Celsius, at the city's main airport weather station. You pick which temperature bucket you think that peak will fall into: exactly 39°C (about 102°F), exactly 40°C (about 104°F), or 41°C or above (about 106°F or hotter). The market currently splits the odds fairly evenly across all three, with 40°C leading slightly. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged on July 24, 2026, at King Abdulaziz International Airport, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole degree Celsius, so a reading like 40.7°C would count as 40°C, not 41°C. One important detail: the market only closes after the first data point for July 25 appears on that site, meaning late corrections to the July 24 readings can still count if they happen before that cutoff. No relevant recent news was provided for this market. The kind of information that would matter here includes seasonal weather forecasts for the Red Sea coast, any climate anomaly outlooks for summer 2026 in the Arabian Peninsula, or historical temperature records for late July in Jeddah. Without that, the main context is simply that late July is deep summer in Jeddah, one of the hottest urban areas on Earth. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and this market closes over a year from now, so no forecast today carries real weight. The three outcome buckets are separated by just one degree each, and a single degree difference in a Middle Eastern summer can hinge on humidity, wind direction, or cloud cover on one specific afternoon. Historical patterns suggest 40 to 42°C is normal for Jeddah in late July, which explains why the market spreads its odds fairly evenly across all three options.

The odds right now

• 40°C35%
• 41°C or higher28%
• 39°C23%
• 38°C14%
• 37°C4%
• 36°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 34°C0%
• 31°C or below0%
• 33°C0%
• 32°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the King Abdulaziz International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/sa/jeddah/OEJN. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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