Highest temperature in London on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will London get on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature bucket will contain the single highest reading of the day at London City Airport. Right now, the market leans toward 28°C as the most likely peak, which feels like a warm but fairly normal summer day in London, similar to sitting outside in direct sunshine in late July. The market settles based on the highest temperature recorded at London City Airport on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website for that station. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket contains that peak reading wins. The market waits until the first data point from July 25 appears on that site before settling, and only revisions published before that cutoff count. None of the recent headlines provided relate to London weather or July forecasts. No relevant news was shared for this market. The kind of update that would matter here is a medium-range weather forecast for London in late July, or a meteorological outlook mentioning an approaching heat event or cool Atlantic system for that week. Weather is genuinely hard to predict more than a few days out, and July 24, 2026 is still well over a year away. The three leading options, 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C, are separated by just one degree each, and they collectively cover most of the probability. A single passing cloud, a shift in wind direction, or an unexpected heat plume from the continent could easily move the answer by one or two degrees. At this range, the honest answer is that nobody knows yet.

The odds right now

• 28°C35%
• 29°C26%
• 27°C23%
• 30°C8%
• 26°C7%
• 25°C2%
• 31°C2%
• 24°C or below1%
• 32°C0%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the London City Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the London City Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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