Highest temperature in Los Angeles on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple question: how hot will it get in Los Angeles on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature reading of that day, measured at the weather station at Los Angeles International Airport (LAX). The outcome is one temperature range, like 80-81°F or 82-83°F, and whichever range contains that peak reading wins. Think of it as guessing the hottest moment of that one day at one specific location. After July 24, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground website for the highest temperature logged at LAX that day, rounded to a whole number in Fahrenheit. Whatever range that number falls into is the winner. One important detail: the data can be revised slightly until the first reading of July 25 is published, but after that, the final number is locked in. There is no human judgment involved, just the recorded station data. None of the provided recent headlines are relevant to this market. They cover art, music, and crime, not weather in Los Angeles. What would actually matter here is any seasonal forecast for late July 2026 in Southern California, or news of unusual heat patterns forming in the region as that date approaches. Late July in LA is reliably warm, which is why the market clusters around 80-83°F, but even well-understood climates have day-to-day variation. A marine layer rolling in from the ocean can keep LAX noticeably cooler than inland areas. An offshore wind pattern can push temperatures up unexpectedly. The spread across three ranges reflects genuine uncertainty: the market gives the 80-81°F band a 45% chance, but 82-83°F gets 30%, so a slightly warmer day is a real possibility too.

The odds right now

• 80-81°F34%
• 82-83°F34%
• 78-79°F13%
• 84-85°F13%
• 86-87°F3%
• 76-77°F2%
• 88-89°F1%
• 74-75°F1%
• 90-91°F1%
• 73°F or below0%
• 92°F or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Los Angeles International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Los Angeles International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ca/los-angeles/KLAX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.