Highest temperature in Madrid on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest part of the day feel like in Madrid on July 24, 2026? Specifically, it asks which temperature bucket wins: 33°C (about 91°F), 34°C (about 93°F), or 35°C (about 95°F). The market is not asking about the average temperature for the day, just the single highest reading recorded at Madrid's main airport weather station on that date. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport weather station on July 24, 2026, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The number must be a whole degree Celsius. Whichever temperature bucket contains that number wins. The result is locked in once the first data point from July 25 appears on that site, after which any corrections to the July 24 data are ignored. There is no relevant recent news available for this market. The only headline provided is about flood relief in India, which has no connection to Madrid's weather. To track this market, the thing worth watching closer to the date would be medium-range weather forecasts for Madrid and any alerts about European summer heat patterns in late July 2026. Weather forecasting more than a few days out is genuinely unreliable, and this market closes over a year from now, so current odds are based on historical patterns rather than any actual forecast. Late July in Madrid is typically very hot, which is why the options cluster around 33 to 35°C, but a passing cold front or an unusual heat dome could shift the result by several degrees. The single-degree precision required also means the outcome could hinge on a very small difference in conditions.

The odds right now

• 34°C48%
• 35°C27%
• 33°C22%
• 36°C5%
• 32°C2%
• 31°C1%
• 37°C1%
• 30°C or below1%
• 38°C1%
• 39°C0%
• 40°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

Same markets. A fraction of the fee.

These apps all route to the same exchange order book. The difference is what each one adds on top of the exchange's own fee.

Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

Trade this market on Paridesk: non-custodial, 0.5% fee.