Highest temperature in Madrid on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Madrid get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it wants to know the single highest temperature recorded that day at Madrid's main airport, Barajas, and which bucket it falls into: 38°C, 39°C, or 40°C. Think of it like guessing the peak of the thermometer on one specific summer afternoon. The market currently puts 39°C as the most likely outcome at 45%, with 38°C close behind at 36%, and 40°C considered less likely at 14%. The market settles based on the highest temperature reading logged on July 23, 2026, at the Barajas Airport weather station, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The temperature is rounded to a whole number in Celsius, so 38.7°C would count as 38°C, not 39°C. The result is locked in once the first temperature reading for July 24 appears on that site. Any small corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections made after do not. No recent news was provided for this market. That is normal this far in advance: weather forecasts only become reliable a week or so before the date. The kind of update worth watching for closer to July 23, 2026, would be extended forecasts from major meteorological services, or news about an unusual heat event or cool spell moving through Spain. A year out, no forecast can tell you what one specific day in Madrid will feel like. July is reliably hot there, which is why all three options cluster in the high 30s, but the difference between 38°C and 40°C on any given day comes down to wind patterns, whether a heat dome sits over the region, or whether a cooler Atlantic flow arrives. Even on the day itself, airport readings can vary from city-center readings. The spread across the three options reflects genuine unpredictability, not a clear favorite.

The odds right now

• 38°C45%
• 39°C39%
• 40°C7%
• 37°C5%
• 36°C1%
• 41°C1%
• 35°C0%
• 43°C0%
• 34°C or below0%
• 42°C0%
• 44°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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