Highest temperature in Manila on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market asks: on July 24, 2026, what will be the hottest temperature of the day at the weather station inside Manila's main international airport? The three options are 30°C, 31°C, or 32°C (roughly 86°F, 88°F, or 90°F). You are guessing which single degree the peak reading lands on, not a range. July is deep in Manila's hot and rainy season, so temperatures in this band are typical for the city. The market settles based on the single highest temperature reading logged on July 24, 2026, at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport weather station, as shown on the Weather Underground website. The reading is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that site. Any corrections published before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. There is no recent news provided that relates to Manila's weather or this market. The one headline is about flood relief in a region of India, which has no connection here. What would actually matter to watch is any forecast for Manila around July 24, 2026, or any reported weather pattern affecting the Philippines in late July of that year. The odds are spread almost evenly across three options at 27-32% each, which honestly reflects how hard single-degree precision is to predict a year in advance. Manila in late July is typically warm and humid, but the exact peak on any one day depends on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind, all of which are essentially unknowable this far out. The tight spacing between the options means a difference of just one degree, which is a very small margin, decides everything.

The odds right now

• 31°C33%
• 30°C28%
• 32°C28%
• 33°C7%
• 29°C5%
• 28°C1%
• 35°C or higher1%
• 34°C1%
• 27°C1%
• 25°C or below0%
• 26°C0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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