Highest temperature in Manila on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: how hot will Manila get on July 23, 2026? Specifically, it asks what the single highest temperature of the day will be, measured in whole degrees Celsius at the weather station inside Ninoy Aquino International Airport. A result of 33°C means the day peaked at exactly 33°C, not 33.5 or 34. Each option is a specific temperature, and only one of them wins. After July 23, 2026 ends, the market checks the Weather Underground historical page for the NAIA airport station and reads the highest temperature logged that day in whole-degree Celsius. Whatever that number is, the matching option wins. One small detail: the market waits until the first data point for July 24 appears before locking in, so any last-minute corrections to July 23 data are included. After that cutoff, no further revisions count. No recent news was provided for this market. For a weather market like this one, the most relevant thing to watch closer to the date would be seasonal forecasts for Manila in late July, typhoon activity in the region, or cloud-cover patterns, since heavy cloud or rain can keep peak temperatures lower than a clear, humid day would. Late July is deep inside Manila's rainy season, which is the core challenge here. Cloud cover and rain can pull peak temperatures down toward 32°C, while a drier, sunnier day can push them to 34°C or beyond. The market currently leans toward 33°C at 46%, with 34°C next. The honest difficulty is that daily high temperatures in a tropical city vary meaningfully based on short-term weather patterns that are simply impossible to forecast reliably more than a week or two in advance.

The odds right now

• 33°C45%
• 34°C32%
• 32°C18%
• 35°C7%
• 31°C2%
• 36°C1%
• 30°C0%
• 28°C0%
• 37°C or higher0%
• 29°C0%
• 27°C or below0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

Related

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Published rates, checked July 2026. MetaMask charges a flat 4 percent per prediction trade. Jupiter adds a fee equal to the exchange's own taker fee at fill time, roughly 2 to 4 percent at typical odds. Where a market carries an exchange settlement fee, it applies everywhere, whichever app you use. Paridesk adds nothing on maker orders.

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