Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 23?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking a simple weather question: what will the highest temperature of the day be in Mexico City on July 23, 2026, measured in whole degrees Celsius? The three options are 27°C, 28°C, or 29°C, and you are essentially picking which single degree the thermometer peaks at that day. To put those numbers in physical terms, 27°C is about 81°F, 28°C is about 82°F, and 29°C is about 84°F, so the spread is quite narrow, just a few degrees of mild, warm summer weather. The market settles based on one specific reading: the highest temperature logged on July 23, 2026, at the Benito Juárez International Airport weather station in Mexico City, pulled from the Weather Underground website. The number is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius. One important detail: the market waits until the first data point of July 24 appears on that site before it can officially close, and any temperature corrections made before that cutoff count, but corrections after it do not. None of the provided news stories relate to Mexico City weather or any climate event relevant to this question. What would actually matter here is any forecast for Mexico City on July 23, 2026, or reports of an unusual heat pattern or storm system affecting central Mexico around that date. The spread between the three options is just two degrees, which makes this genuinely hard to call. Late July in Mexico City tends to be warm and humid, with afternoon temperatures clustering in exactly this range, so history does not rule any option out. A passing cloud cover, an afternoon thunderstorm, or a slight shift in wind can easily move the peak by a single degree. The market currently leans toward 28°C at 46%, but the other two options together account for nearly as much, reflecting real uncertainty across a very tight band.

The odds right now

• 28°C42%
• 27°C25%
• 29°C23%
• 26°C5%
• 30°C4%
• 25°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 24°C or below1%
• 33°C0%
• 32°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 23, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 23 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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