Highest temperature in Mexico City on July 24?: how this market works

What you need to know

This market is asking: what will the hottest moment of July 24, 2026 feel like in Mexico City? Specifically, it asks you to pick which single degree Celsius the peak temperature will land on that day, measured at the airport weather station. A reading of 28°C means a warm but mild mid-20s day, roughly 82°F. A reading of 29°C is about 84°F, and 27°C is closer to 81°F. These are fairly close together, so the question is really about a narrow range within a typical July day. The market settles based on the single highest temperature recorded at Mexico City's Benito Juárez International Airport on July 24, 2026, pulled from Weather Underground's historical data for that station. The temperature is rounded to the nearest whole degree Celsius, so a reading of 28.7°C, for example, would count as 28°C. The result is locked in once the first data point for July 25 appears on that page. Any corrections Weather Underground makes before that cutoff count; corrections after do not. None of the news provided is relevant to Mexico City's weather on July 24, 2026. The headlines cover unrelated topics from other cities and countries. For this market, what would matter is any forecast or historical climate data for late July in Mexico City, particularly anything pointing to unusual heat or rain patterns in the region around that date. Late July in Mexico City is part of the rainy season, which tends to keep peak temperatures moderate and in a fairly consistent range, but day-to-day variation still exists depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind. The three leading outcomes cover just a three-degree window, meaning even small shifts in weather patterns could swing the result. Airport readings can also differ from city-center conditions. The market prices 28°C as most likely at 41%, but the remaining 59% is spread across neighboring values, reflecting genuine uncertainty about a narrow call.

The odds right now

• 28°C41%
• 27°C29%
• 29°C19%
• 26°C9%
• 30°C5%
• 25°C1%
• 31°C1%
• 24°C or below1%
• 32°C1%
• 33°C0%
• 34°C or higher0%

Price history

How this resolves

Resolves July 24, 2026

This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jul '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX. Read the full resolution rules on the live market page.

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